{
  "configuration": {
    "execution_mode": "RESEARCH_ONLY",
    "order_permission": false,
    "experiment": "TSMOM_OVERFITTING_TRIBUNAL_V1",
    "input_sha256": "7e5c8e94547f2b1c4c74473e3c1fca22ad50846b72ac5d09bfcf9ebcad76632f",
    "input_rows": 20108,
    "input_first_at": "2017-08-17T04:00:00+00:00",
    "input_last_at": "2026-10-31T20:00:00+00:00",
    "candidate_ledger": [
      {
        "candidate": "TSMOM_180",
        "lookback_bars": 180,
        "observations": 17947,
        "total_return_pct": 1879.835407,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 51.884494,
        "number_of_trades": 275,
        "fee_bps_per_side": 10,
        "slippage_bps_per_side": 5,
        "execution": "completed-bar signal; next-bar-open fill"
      },
      {
        "candidate": "TSMOM_540",
        "lookback_bars": 540,
        "observations": 17947,
        "total_return_pct": 560.547662,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 67.592649,
        "number_of_trades": 133,
        "fee_bps_per_side": 10,
        "slippage_bps_per_side": 5,
        "execution": "completed-bar signal; next-bar-open fill"
      },
      {
        "candidate": "TSMOM_1080",
        "lookback_bars": 1080,
        "observations": 17947,
        "total_return_pct": 1036.886689,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 63.811788,
        "number_of_trades": 67,
        "fee_bps_per_side": 10,
        "slippage_bps_per_side": 5,
        "execution": "completed-bar signal; next-bar-open fill"
      },
      {
        "candidate": "TSMOM_2160",
        "lookback_bars": 2160,
        "observations": 17947,
        "total_return_pct": 1062.969904,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 67.296981,
        "number_of_trades": 30,
        "fee_bps_per_side": 10,
        "slippage_bps_per_side": 5,
        "execution": "completed-bar signal; next-bar-open fill"
      }
    ],
    "groups": 12,
    "test_groups_per_split": 2,
    "purge_observations": 1,
    "embargo_fraction": 0.01,
    "thresholds_predeclared": {
      "max_pbo": 0.2,
      "min_dsr": 0.95
    },
    "limitations": [
      "SPA and Reality Check are not implemented in this minimum version",
      "effective independent trial count is provisionally the four submitted candidates",
      "this tribunal tests selection stability, not profitability"
    ],
    "configuration_sha256": "7ad2e8202037f3449cb09d57e0b186ff404ab130729f0a3c48971fe2ef0b2f03"
  },
  "judgement": {
    "method": "CPCV_12_2_PBO_DSR_V1",
    "order_permission": false,
    "observations": 17947,
    "candidate_count": 4,
    "split_count": 66,
    "purge_observations": 1,
    "embargo_fraction": 0.01,
    "pbo": 0.5606060606060606,
    "selected_full_sample_candidate": "TSMOM_180",
    "selected_sharpe_per_bar": 0.01846384811298356,
    "expected_max_sharpe_benchmark_per_bar": 0.0028276416445124014,
    "probabilistic_sharpe_ratio_zero": 0.9933123449400674,
    "deflated_sharpe_ratio": 0.9819054026578566,
    "selected_skew": 0.11697148830687014,
    "selected_kurtosis": 24.916475950248483,
    "selection_counts": {
      "TSMOM_1080": 10,
      "TSMOM_180": 54,
      "TSMOM_2160": 0,
      "TSMOM_540": 2
    },
    "candidate_sharpe_per_bar": {
      "TSMOM_1080": 0.013651984030550275,
      "TSMOM_180": 0.01846384811298356,
      "TSMOM_2160": 0.012618102092735568,
      "TSMOM_540": 0.011366051398135462
    },
    "verdict": "OVERFIT_RISK",
    "thresholds": {
      "max_pbo": 0.2,
      "min_dsr": 0.95
    }
  },
  "result_sha256": "7a2a74563491b0bf23ee49c0f64d0fafcc292f5ea4132d9ec5dc006f85f71688"
}